Front des Forces Démocratiques

الاقتصاد والنمو

Real GDP grew by 4.9% in 2025, but non-agricultural growth was only 3.9%. The IMF’s central path remains around 4.0%–4.5% annually through 2031. Averaging 5.6% would require a sustained outperformance of that path despite agricultural and external shocks.

التشغيل وسوق العمل

Creating one million net jobs in five years requires an average of 200,000 a year. That is close to the 193,000 jobs created in 2025, but it must be sustained every year while labour-force participation may rise. Since 2026, HCP has used a new unemployment measure, so the former 13% rate is not directly comparable.

المالية العمومية والمديونية

With total public debt projected at 77.5% of GDP in 2026, a 15-point reduction implies 62.5% in 2031, or 3 points per year. The IMF baseline puts budgetary central-government debt at 60.5% in 2031, still 8.5 points above the 52% ceiling. Far stronger fiscal consolidation would be required.

البحث العلمي والابتكار

The promise does not say whether 1.4% of GDP means the State budget or total national R&D expenditure. The latest comparable international series found for Morocco ends in 2010 at 0.66% of GDP. The 2026 higher-education budget alone is not a national R&D measure. The 2026 starting point remains undetermined.

الحماية الاجتماعية

The promise creates a permanent universal entitlement but sets neither an individual amount nor a clear periodicity for the MAD 46bn. Even if fully paid out every year, it would equal only about MAD 105 a month per citizen using Morocco’s 2024 citizen count. Without financial parameters and a map of transferable spending, no robust conclusion is possible.

محاربة الفقر

The promise does not define “severe material poverty,” its threshold, population, or measurement method. HCP publishes several different measures: extreme monetary poverty, national monetary poverty, and multidimensional poverty. Direct social assistance shows payment capacity, but does not measure the promised outcome.

محو الأمية والتشغيل

Paying 150,000 people MAD 5,000 a month already uses MAD 9bn a year, before contributions, training, equipment, and supervision. The programme can be deployed during the term, but its financing and supervisory capacity are very tight, especially if all 150,000 contracts run simultaneously.

دعم الأسرة

A targeted birth grant already exists, but it covers first and second births for families meeting direct social-support conditions. The promise covers every newborn without specifying the amount, rules, or duration of the MAD 3.5bn shared with family allowances. Those missing details prevent a sound cost estimate and feasibility assessment.

قوانين الشغل والأسرة

Moving from 14 to 16 weeks adds two paid weeks per covered birth. Morocco already funds 100% maternity leave through social insurance, making legislative extension achievable before 2031. However, no recent public costing of expenditure and compensated births has been established here; a CNSS actuarial study remains necessary.

قوانين الشغل والأسرة

Private-sector employees receive three paid days for a birth. Moving to 15 days adds 12 days per birth. A Labour Code amendment and clear financing rules could be adopted during the term, but the real cost depends on the number of eligible fathers and insured wages, which the programme does not specify.

الرعاية الأسرية

A flexible unpaid or time-limited entitlement could be created before 2031. However, the promise specifies no transferable duration, pay level, beneficiaries, or funding. Available data already show 52 weeks of unpaid parental leave and no father-reserved share, so the cost of a new paid entitlement cannot be established.

التقاعد والحماية الاجتماعية

Raising survivor pensions to 80% is legally conceivable, but requires changes across several schemes and durable funding. Structural imbalances in public pension schemes make it demanding. Public data do not, however, allow a reliable estimate of the national extra cost or confirmation of whether the MAD 2 billion is annual or one-off.

العدالة الجبائية

The current system grants a DH 600 reduction per dependent, capped at DH 3,600, without a family quotient. A quotient can be created through tax reform during the term, but its formula, cost, distributional effect, and rules for separated or blended households are unspecified.

العدالة الجبائية والتعليم والصحة

The current tax code provides a DH 600 tax reduction per dependent, capped at DH 3,600; it is not a deduction of actual expenses from taxable income. A Finance Law can introduce capped education, childcare, and health deductions, but the programme gives neither caps nor a verifiable cost.

السكن ودعم الشباب

The exemption could be legislated and operated during 2026-2031. But the programme sets no property-price cap, beneficiary number, or rule against stacking other aid, so its actual cost is open-ended. It is feasible if the finance law defines a verifiable first purchase, a cap, and an annual offset for lost revenue.

السكن والتمويل

The scheme can be created, but delivery would be demanding. The observed housing-loan rate may not price a down-payment loan, and the programme specifies neither loan size, term, number of loans, nor the cost of the income-tax deduction. Without strict caps, a separate budget, and an effective bank agreement, fiscal commitments could quickly exceed the stated envelope.

قطاع السكن

At the grant mix published in 2025, average assistance is about DH 81,100. Funding 60,000 cases yearly would cost about DH 4.866 billion, DH 666 million above DH 4.2 billion. The target pace also exceeds the published monthly rate. Official data count beneficiaries without proving a perfect equivalence with households.

التعليم والوظيفة العمومية

A common statute already covers ministry staff and statutory AREF staff, but it does not by itself transfer them into the central civil service. Full conversion within five years remains feasible if the legal texts change, records are reconciled, and payroll, pensions, and school continuity are secured.

محاربة الهدر المدرسي

Halving dropout is a very ambitious five-year goal. The available official benchmark is old: 5% and 334,664 pupils in 2021-2022. Social-support services exist but remain unevenly extended. Delivery requires a published 2025-2026 baseline, individual tracking, and sustained expansion of transport, meals, boarding, and remedial teaching.

البنية التحتية التعليمية

For the public-school network counted in 2024-2025, reaching 80% means upgrading and equipping at least 9,807 schools, or about 1,962 a year. Connectivity and basic digital equipment are already widespread, but they do not demonstrate the simultaneous availability of laboratories and sports and cultural facilities. Funding and the compliance standard remain unspecified.

تمويل التعليم

Treating MAD 32bn as a cumulative addition over five fiscal years gives an average of MAD 6.4bn a year. That is below the MAD 11.495bn education increase in the 2026 Finance Bill. The amount can be mobilized if the proposed revenues and reallocations are real, additional, and approved every year.

الصفقات العمومية والمقاولات

The current framework already reserves 30% of annual forecast procurement value for MSMEs and similar categories, reaching the bottom of the promised range. Moving to 35% requires a regulatory increase and monitoring of actual awards. No independently verified evidence here shows that 35% of values have already been effectively awarded.

الاستثمار وتمويل المقاولات

Creating and launching a licensed public lender within five years is feasible if its mandate, capital, governance and Bank Al-Maghrib approval are completed. The promise provides no initial capital, loan volume, interest rate or timetable. Its scale and effect therefore cannot be assessed. Its relationship with Tamwilcom and FM6I must be clear.

إدماج القطاع غير المهيكل

Creating a three-year transitional tax regime is achievable before 2031 because Morocco already has simplified regimes for auto-entrepreneurs and the single professional contribution. But the promise gives no enrolment target: it supports assessing creation of the corridor, not its actual formalisation effect across 2.03 million units.

مناخ الأعمال والصفقات العمومية

In 2024, the average payment time for State and local-authority contracts was 25.7 days, but local authorities averaged 31 days. An average does not show whether 90% of invoices are paid within 30 days. Reaching that threshold across the full scope requires compliance data, available payment appropriations and consistent execution.

المناصفة وإدماج المرأة

HCP measures female labour-force participation at 18.1% in Q2 2026 under a new survey that is not directly comparable with the old series. With the female working-age population held constant, reaching 35% implies about 2.36 million additional participants in five years. The scale requires exceptionally rapid nationwide change.

قطاع الصحة

An average additional MAD 5.6bn a year is fiscally manageable, but registering 80% of the population in primary care is a major delivery transformation. Clinics and territorial health groups are being deployed; a published baseline, staff, interoperable systems, and measured waiting times are still needed.

تشغيل الشباب

A universal four-month guarantee requires knowing the flow of under-30s becoming unemployed, the effective offers available, and waiting times. These series are not published sufficiently to quantify the capacity required. Available data confirm high youth vulnerability, but NEET figures include many inactive people and cannot be treated as the eligible population to be served.

الماء والطاقة

With national network efficiency at 78% in 2024, cutting losses by ten percentage points means—if interpreted as an absolute change—reaching 88% efficiency. That requires an average two-point gain each year for five years. The MAD 30 billion also covers energy and its split is unspecified. The effort is substantial despite already high public water investment.

الأمن المائي والبيئة

Morocco reused about 52–53 million m³ per year in 2024, while the public programme targeted 100 million by 2027. The available 7% benchmark covers all urban wastewater, not only treated wastewater, so it cannot directly measure the gap to 50%. Regulatory delays, conveyance networks, and financing make the target demanding.