Union Socialiste des Forces Populaires

النمو الاقتصادي

The promise is interpreted as reaching 6% in 2031, not delivering 6% every year. The IMF baseline projects 4% in 2031 and HCP projects 3% in 2027. Reaching 6% remains conceivable, but requires exceptional, sustained acceleration in productivity, private investment and exports.

المالية العمومية

The deficit was 3.5% of GDP in 2025; HCP projects 3.4% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Reaching 3% or less by 2031 extends a gradual path, but depends on durable revenue and control of investment, social-protection and debt-service spending.

المديونية العمومية

Feasibility first depends on the debt measure selected. At end-2024, consolidated general-government debt was 63.9% of GDP, while Treasury debt was 67.7%. Reaching below 60% therefore requires a moderate adjustment in the first case but a far larger one in the second, alongside sustained fiscal discipline.

الميزان التجاري

The goods trade deficit reached MAD 352.3 billion in 2025. A 15% reduction by 2031 requires a net improvement of about MAD 52.8 billion. This is demanding after the deficit widened, but remains plausible if exports consistently grow faster than imports.

الاستثمار الخاص

Official data provide an incomplete private-investment baseline that is not fully comparable with national accounts. At constant 2025 GDP, 25% equals about MAD 430 billion, far above the ministry’s cited MAD 90 billion annual figure. The target could only be approached through a sustained, major increase in private investment, finance and productive projects.

إصلاح الإدارة والرقمنة

The latest independent audit found only 23% of public services fully digitalised at end-2023. Reaching 80% by 31 December 2030 means gaining at least 57 points in four full years. It can be done only with a sustained acceleration in interoperability, legal implementation, cyber safeguards and delivery across all administrations.

تبسيط المساطر الإدارية

Moroccan law already allows silence to count as consent, but only for acts on a regulatory list. Extending it to every eligible procedure would require a nationwide legal screening, updated lists, enforceable deadlines and safeguards for third parties. It can be pursued within the term, but broad implementation across administrations would be demanding.

إصلاح الإدارة

The evidence gives legal ceilings and a late-delivery rate in one sample, but not a national average processing time or a defined basket of files. A 70% cut cannot be measured from those figures. A national baseline and public annual reporting are needed before the five-year feasibility can be assessed reliably.

محاربة الفساد

A bill on illicit enrichment has already been filed and examined in Parliament. Enacting a law in 2026–2031 is institutionally feasible, but the text must resolve constitutional safeguards, evidence, asset declarations and enforcement capacity. “Advanced” has no defined benchmark.

محاربة الفساد وحماية الشهود

The evidence shows incomplete protection and a recent strategy for secure reporting, but no identified dedicated fund. Creating an assistance mechanism within five years is feasible if a legal basis, annual appropriation and independent management are approved. Its cost cannot be calculated without a benefit scale or expected caseload.

حماية المستهلك والأسعار

Establishing the observatory and making it operational before 2031 is institutionally feasible. Morocco already has regular price data and an independent competition authority. The decisive challenge is lawful access to reliable cost and margin data while protecting business confidentiality. The body alone would not guarantee lower prices.

العدالة المجالية والجهوية

The promise refers to at least a 60% increase in new budgets directed to regions with deficits, but defines neither those regions, indicators, baseline budget nor coverage. The national 2026 envelope of MAD 380 billion does not resolve these gaps. Feasibility therefore cannot be established in a verifiable way.

مغاربة العالم

For the 23 September 2026 election, the official arrangement for voters abroad remains proxy voting, not dedicated districts. Diaspora districts would require a further organic-law reform, seat and boundary design, and arrangements compatible with host countries. This could be completed before 2031, but it is politically and administratively demanding.

السيادة الغذائية والصناعة التحويلية

Agri-food infrastructure and support measures exist, but no current comparable public indicator defines the intended “industrial valorisation” rate or its starting level. Without a numerator, denominator and base year, the scale of effort needed to reach 70% cannot be reliably established.

السيادة الدوائية والصحة

Ministry sources cite 70% and then 80% coverage of medicine needs. They do not provide an audited, stable measure strictly equivalent to the share of medicines manufactured locally. The starting point and effort required to exceed 80% therefore remain undetermined.

التشغيل والصناعة

The target requires 50,000 net industrial jobs a year for five years. The official barometer recorded 42,714 net jobs in 2024, described as an exceptional year. Sustaining a higher pace requires the hubs, investment, land and training systems to generate verifiable additional employment.

الطلب العمومي ودعم الإنتاج الوطني

Current rules provide a 15% national preference and a 30% reservation for certain small entities, but no specific 20% quota for domestic industrial enterprises. Such a rule can be introduced during the term if the applicable framework is amended, international commitments are respected, and awards are monitored.

تشغيل الشباب والبطالة

In Q2 2026, strict unemployment among 15–24-year-olds was 27.2%. Falling below 15% by 2031 requires a drop of more than 12.2 points. Existing funding and programmes can help, but sustained, large-scale creation of paid jobs for young people would be needed.

المقاولات الصغرى والمتوسطة وآجال الأداء

The programme places this commitment under public procurement. Central and local government already averaged 18 days in 2024, while public entities averaged 31.7 days. Getting below 30 days is realistic, but published data do not separately measure the time received by SMEs alone.

التمويل البنكي والاستثمار

Creating and starting a specialised public bank before 2031 is institutionally feasible. However, the programme gives no capital amount, lending volume or guarantee cost. Establishing the bank alone therefore does not demonstrate its future financing capacity.

العدالة الجبائية والضريبة على الدخل

The tax-free threshold is already MAD 40,000. Raising it to MAD 50,000 and reducing rates by two points can be enacted through finance laws before 2031. The challenge is fiscal: the programme specifies neither the affected brackets nor a reliable estimate of offsetting revenue.

العدالة الجبائية والتضامن

The programme proposes a progressive tax on large fortunes and an asset register, but gives no threshold, rate, tax base or expected revenue. It is therefore impossible to assess yield, administrative cost or the share of social services that could actually be financed before these parameters are defined.

الطاقة والانتقال الأخضر

Renewables were reported to supply 27% of electricity generation at end-2024. Exceeding 60% in 2030 requires exceptional acceleration of plants, grids, storage and flexibility. The investment programme and grid hosting capacity make it technically conceivable, but actual on-time commissioning is the decisive risk.

البحث العلمي واقتصاد المعرفة

The latest comparable figure puts national R&D spending at 0.8% of GDP in 2019; reaching 2% requires multiplying effort by 2.5. Catch-up can technically begin, but needs exceptional annual growth in public and private R&D, plus more researchers and research capacity. The lack of a recent series increases uncertainty.

الصحة وتغطية العلاج

The latest published national accounts put household out-of-pocket payments at 38% in 2022. Going below 20% in five years requires a reduction of more than 18 points, far faster than the 2018–2022 change. AMO expansion helps, but genuinely effective and sustainable reimbursement is essential.

الرأسمال البشري الطبي

“Healthcare providers” is not precisely defined. Even using the comparable New Development Model baseline, moving from 2 to 4.5 per 1,000 requires about 92,000 net additional professionals in five years. That same threshold was planned for 2035, not 2031.

التعليم ومحاربة الهدر المدرسي

In 2024–2025, reported primary and lower-secondary exits totalled 217,540. Compared with published enrolment, that is an indicative 3.9%; getting below 2% would mean preventing over 105,000 exits each year under the same measurement. Existing measures help, but sustained delivery in rural areas and at the transition to lower secondary would be demanding.

التعليم الأولي المجاني

The ministry reports preschool enrolment rising from 79% in 2023–2024 to 85% in 2025–2026 and already targets generalisation in 2027–2028. Reaching full coverage by 2030–2031 matches the recent enrolment pace. It depends on sustained funding, rural access, trained educators, and proof that every covered place is free and meets quality standards.

التمكين الاقتصادي للنساء

Female labour-force participation was 19.0% in 2025 and declined slightly. Reaching 30% by 2030 would require about 1.6 million additional active women, even assuming a constant population. This far exceeds recent changes and would require exceptional mobilisation into jobs or active job search.

الاستثمار في الثقافة

The 2026 budget note gives DH1.427 billion to the Culture Department, after an 8.79% annual increase. Reaching 2% of the general state budget would require several years of much larger, permanent reallocations. The exact gap cannot be audited until the programme defines which cultural spending and which budget total count.